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Exchange4free Global Forex Report (10/05/2017)


At the beginning of the week (Monday and Tuesday), we saw the US dollar strengthen; the strength of the greenback was clearly seen against the haven currencies of CHF, JPY, EUR and AUD. This was before US President Donald Trump abruptly fired FBI director James Comey in a move that shocked Washington and pushed investors away.

The news regarding Comey is being treated as a risk- off event and the headlines are sparking the Dollars move down.

Other US news over the last week included the House of Republicans approving a bill for an overhaul of the nation’s healthcare system currently known as Obamacare. It is Trump's belief that the Obamacare system is dead. Some believe that this is a small victory for the Trump administration, despite still having a few hurdles to overcome.

Things to watch later today include the release of crude oil inventories at 3:30pm London time.


On Monday we saw bearish movement of the EUR. This was followed by Tuesday’s drop, which confirmed a short-term trend reversal in the EUR/USD pair ahead of the ECB President Draghi’s speech.

Draghi will make a speech in Dutch Parliament today. This will be the first speech after the French election (since the risks of Le Pen coming into power were dismissed).


The GBP to USD was trading at 1.2985 at the time of writing. This is slightly down on the day, ahead of the Bank of England rate meeting and inflation report scheduled for Thursday.

This meeting is not expected to result in any change in policy, but analysts have been speculating about the possibility of another vote for a rate hike. If this rate hike happens it will give the GBP a good boost.


The AUD is slightly higher against its US counterparts after having lost almost half a percent before the federal budget helped prompt a turnaround. Commodity currencies continued to slide until the (Australian) budget provided what some might term “more of an excuse rather than a reason” to stem the decline in AUD.

The Australian budget had limited impact on North Atlantic markets, but did provide rationale for AUD to find at least an interim base and contained long-end yields.


The election victory of Macron in France took effect on the CHF, which depreciated against the EUR. Investors still believe the CHF will generally remain under appreciation pressure; levels around 1.09 in EUR/CHF should be sustained for the time being.

With market forces at play having a depreciating effect on the Franc; The Swiss National Bank will not have to Intervene in the FX market for now.


The ZAR has strengthened today following two days of losses, helped by firmer precious metals prices and a slip in the dollar after the US president Donald Trump abruptly fired the FBI director.

The environment of falling commodity prices has added to the Rand’s woes. In the event of a spike in prices, we could see an emerging market commodity currency rally, so the ZAR is not to be written off just yet.


The Nigerian central bank has been selling treasury bills to push up the Naira. The Naira has been gaining strength against the majors over the past week.

Everyone is watching this market and waiting to see how long the Nigerian central bank can keep up this controlled Naira.

Official USD/NGN rates remain around the 314.00 mark.

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