United States Dollar (USD)
A busy week for the Dollar with several lots of data and news out. We kick off with PPI data today although the real market mover is Wednesdays CPI data and the FOMC announcement & press announcement in the afternoon. The market will be looking for guidance on when rates will be raised following a spate of strong data and hints from policy makers. Thursday sees Jobless Claims numbers, with signs of job-growth steadying the Fed will not want to rock the boat too much. EURUSD has been trading in a very narrow sideways band for most of September but Wednesdays Fed announcement and Thursdays ECB announcement should shake up the market.
The EUR will take primary direction this week from the US Fed announcement on Wednesday and the ECB announcement on Thursday. Today we’ll receive German Economic sentiment figures with expectations of a further fall in investor confidence. The ECB LTRO announcement on Thursday will be their first liquidity injection of the ECB’s easing programme, the bank is expected to release EUR200billion into the economy. The level of buy in from investors will determine how low the EURUSD rate can go on the day. Trading around 1.2940 to USD, support is seen at 1.2860 and resistance at 1.2980.
British Pound (GBP)
Big week for Sterling as we reach the Scottish independence referendum on Thursday. The market is predicting a ‘No’ vote but the volatility has been factored in. Any surprises will be a negative for Sterling and developing markets. Currently trading just under the 1.62 level to USD the GBP is at its low for the year and has fallen close to 5.5% from the pairs July high. Following sideways trading in the past week the GBPEUR pair face downside risk with the Scottish vote and ECB announcement on the calendar.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
The Aussie Dollar has dropped 2.5% against USD in September alone and is now near a 7-month low. News out of China and the US will direct the Aussie dollar this week. Exporters will be positive on the depreciation and the low & stable rate stance of the RBA. The RBA has stated that AUD strength is the main drag on the economy and have held rates at 2.5% for their 12th straight announcement.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Following the Reserve Banks hold on interest rates at 3.5% the Kiwi Dollar continued its slide against USD. The RBNZ states the economy is adjusting to the policy measures implemented in the past year but that the currency has yet to fully adjust. Continued NZD weakness is expected to prevail in the coming weeks, the extent of which will be determined by the US Fed’s actions this week.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Trading near a 7-month low against USD. Data out of Canada this week includes Manufacturing Sales on Tuesday and CPI data out on Friday. The 12-month average job growth level sits at about 0.5%, with the job market presenting the biggest challenge to economic growth in Canada. USDCAD currently trading around 1.1050 with support at 1.0930 and resistance at 1.1270.
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA AND EVENTS
16 September 2014 10h00 am ECT German ZEW Survey Current Situation
16 September 2014 08h30 am US ET US PPI-FD
17 September 2014 08h30 am US ET US CPI
17 September 2014 14h00 pm US ET US FOMC Forecasts and Chair Press Conference
18 September 2014 10h15 am ECT ECB Announces TLTRO Allotment
18 September 2014 13h30 pm UK Scottish referendum
18 September 2014 08h30 am US ET US Jobless Claims
Global Forex Market Report - 16 September 2014
United States Dollar (USD)