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ZAR Forex Report - 15 March 2016

Market watch for this week

• Today: Eurozone employment; US PPI; US empire manufacturing; BoJ policy rate; US NAHB housing market index
• Tomorrow: US Rate Decision, US CPI, manufacturing and industrial numbers, UK job stats SA retail sales; US housing starts; 
• Thu: SARB rates decision, BOE Bank Rate, Japan trade balance; Eurozone trade balance


The ZAR has dropped as much as 2.3 percent against the dollar as investors were not convinced that the Treasury’s independence is not under pressure given the tax department investigations – The ZAR was one of the weakest EM currency performers.

The three heavyweight ratings agencies, Moody’s, Fitch and S&P will no doubt be having a few meetings with treasury and other financial institutions this week – the clock is ticking and we (I mean Mr. Gordhan) have a little more than 90 days to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat and avoid junk status.

Keep an eye on the Monetary Policy Committee rates decision on Thursday. Although inflation has rocketed through the 6% barrier far sooner than expected in January, it is by no means a done deal that rates will rise given that the ZAR has actually appreciated since then. The general consensus is that the US Fed will keep rates on hold which could also result in SARB keeping rates the same
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